Situation Report - 2,429 New Cases and 78 Deaths Reported as Eid Backlog Clears - Android

Pakistan yesterday reported a total of 2,429 new coronavirus cases and recorded 78 new deaths due to coronavirus related complications… Read More

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Pakistan yesterday reported a total of 2,429 new coronavirus cases and recorded 78 new deaths due to coronavirus related complications during a single day, up from 57 deaths a day ago.

It is thought that such high number of deaths (during past two days) are due to backlog because of Eid Holidays, however, NCOC didn’t say anything on the matter. A more clearer picture will emerge after 3-4 days to rightly ascertain the situation.

The theory of backlog is also backed by the fact that Sindh reported 2, 5 and 6 deaths on May 25th, 26 and 27th respectively; way lower than its usual double digit death figure. Similarly Punjab reported 8 and 5 deaths on May 23rd and May 24th, way lower than its usual double digit death figure.

Sindh reported 31 deaths yesterday while Punjab said 29 patients died of Coronavirus in the province during past 24 hours.

KP reported 13 fatalities yesterday while Balochistan, Islamabad and AJK recorded 3, 1 and 1 death respectively.

Nonetheless, 78 is a notable increase in daily death number and it would concern a lot of minds. NCOC should come forward and clarify the situation to avoid any public panic.

As it has been said repeatedly, cases and deaths would grow after Eid, and next few days will be critical to watch the numbers.

Since the lock-down in Pakistan (except schools and Shaadi halls) was fully lifted on May 9th, 2020 — the cases that are yet reported are pretty much in-line with usual growth rate that we have been seeing for past two and half months. Actually, the growth rate has declined during past two weeks.

Graph clearly shows that new cases per week are growing, however, the growth rate has been on the decline. It has come down from around 100% during 7 Apr to 13 Apr to around 12% during the week before Eid.

This essentially means that the number of new cases will keep emerging, but the growth rate will die-down; and that’s when the peak will be reached.

If such is the case, it appears that lifting of lock-down didn’t impact the numbers much, especially after no social distancing was observed in markets and bazaars during last 15 days of Ramzan.

If cases continue to remain steady in next few days, it will be an indication that Pakistan’s peak could be just weeks away, if not days. For that, we will have to watch next few days before drawing a conclusion.

More in below table and graphs.

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